It's November and that means it's time to elect the next President of the United States. And with incumbent Republican Andrew Boone (KELSEY GRAMMER) facing a close contest waged by his Democratic challenger, Donald Greenleaf (DENNIS HOPPER), every vote is crucial. That is, except to Texico, New Mexico resident "Bud" Johnson (KEVIN COSTNER). Divorced and beaten down by life, he works at the local egg packaging factory along with his lifelong friends Walter (JUDGE REINHOLD) and Lewis (CHARLES ESTEN), but never shows up on time and doesn't seem to care about anything beyond drinking.
This bothers his young and precocious daughter, Molly (MADELINE CARROLL), who has a good head on her shoulders. She acts as the parent in their trailer household, always being the one to have to get him up in the morning from his drunken stupor. Since it's election day, she really wants him to do his civic duty and vote, but when he loses his job, he ends up drinking in the local bar rather than meeting her at their polling place.
After waiting hours for him to show up, she sneaks in, forges his signature, and tries to cast his votes, but is interrupted, thus leaving his vote incomplete. That turns out to be significant as the voting results in their county end up in a tie, meaning his decision will determine which way the electoral votes will go and thus the overall Presidential election as well.
When federal officials arrive to inform Bud that he will have to cast his vote again in ten days, local TV reporter Kate Madison (PAULA PATTON) manages to get the scoop on him being the swing voter. As a result, the press -- not just from Kate's TV station where her boss, John Sweeney (GEORGE LOPEZ), encourages her to forgo her conscience and do whatever it takes to find out how he intends to vote -- quickly arrive in Texico and set up camp around Bud and Molly's trailer.
And they're not alone, as both Presidential candidates -- as well as their campaign managers, Martin Fox (STANLEY TUCCI) with the President and Art Crumb (NATHAN LANE) working for Greenleaf -- also arrive, hoping to sway Bud's decision their way. As the days wear on, Molly becomes increasingly upset about how things are playing out, all while her dad enjoys all of the attention while in the national spotlight.